Abortion won't be Biden's salvation against Trump in Florida and Arizona: poll


Abortion is expected to be on the ballot in Arizona and Florida in November, but the issue will not provide the push President Biden needs to win the two states, according to a new poll.

According to a CBS/YouGov poll, voters in both states overwhelmingly support abortion access but still prefer former President Donald Trump over Biden (52% to 47% in Arizona and 54% to 45% in Florida).

Democrats have typically been able to trounce Republicans on this sensitive issue.

Donald Trump has ruled out pursuing a federal abortion ban. REUTERS

In Florida, the state Supreme Court in April upheld a six-week abortion ban that went into effect earlier that month and gave the green light to a referendum to enshrine abortion access in the state constitution.

Unlike other states that required a majority threshold for their abortion referendums, Florida requires 60% of voters to approve it.

Although Florida was once the quintessential battleground state, it has fallen significantly in recent years, and Republicans now represent the majority of registered voters there.

Still, the Biden-Harris campaign has opened an office there, and both Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have ventured to Florida to keep it within the realm of possibility.

In the Sunshine State, 65% of respondents wanted abortion to be legal in all or most cases, compared to 35% who said abortion was illegal in all or most cases, the poll shows.

But in Florida, abortion (53%) lagged behind other issues such as the economy (89%), inflation (84%), the state of democracy (74%), crime (69%), gun policy (60%) etc. back the U.S.-Mexico border (64%) as an “important factor” for the state’s voters in 2024.

Polls generally show that greater abortion restrictions are unpopular.

A similar trend was observed in Arizona.

Earlier this month, Arizona's Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs signed a bill repealing a 160-year-old law that restricts most abortions performed in the state.

Activists in the state claim to have collected the necessary signatures for a ballot initiative back in November to enshrine a woman's right to access abortions in the Arizona Constitution.

About 66% of Arizonans want abortion to be legal in all or most cases, compared with 34% who want it to be illegal in all or most cases, the poll said.

As in Florida, abortion (51%) followed other issues such as the economy (82%), inflation (78%), the state of democracy (70%), crime (59%) and the U.S.-Mexico border (61%). %) as a “major factor” for Arizona voters in 2024.

President Biden, the country's second Catholic president, has expressed concern about abortion. AP

Notably, in Arizona, Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake is trailing Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) in the race for the coveted seat, 36% to 49%, according to the poll.

Trump narrowly lost Arizona to Biden 49.06% to 49.36% in 2020, but beat him 51.22% to 47.86% in Florida this year.

The 77-year-old former president has moderated the albatross issue ahead of his rematch against his 81-year-old successor, saying he would turn to the states on abortion.

According to the CBS/YouGov poll, Biden is trailing Donald Trump in polls in Arizona and Florida. AP

At the same time, Trump publicly claimed that Arizona's 160-year-old abortion policy went too far.

The CBS/YouGov poll was conducted between March 10 and March 16 and surveyed 1,510 adults in Arizona with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points and 1,576 adults in Florida with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

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Anna Harden

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