close
close

The numbers look VERY bad for Tester and Schumer in Montana

You could tell that what I said to Chuck Schumer REALLY got under his skin. You could tell how close he and Democratic Senator Jon Tester (D-MT) really are. The two of them are inseparable.

I was sitting there drinking a cup of coffee and chatting with my cousin while we waited to board our flight back to Montana from Washington, DC. Then Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) stepped off the plane with his entourage. I looked at him at the last moment and said, “Hey Chuck, we're going to beat Jon Tester in Montana this year.”

I wish I had taken a video so you could have seen the look on his face. I didn't get up, I just sat there drinking my coffee while Schumer walked away yelling at me. “You have a crazy candidate in Montana,” I yelled back, “he's a Bronze Star, Purple Heart Navy SEAL veteran, you crook!” Or something like that. My cousin found the whole back and forth pretty funny. He had never been east of Rapid City.

Why would Schumer be so sensitive about Tester's race in Montana? The numbers after last Tuesday's Montana primary are VERY bad for Tester, Schumer and the Democrats. Think of all the money Schumer has pumped into Montana and it's not working.

Listen to the following podcast from last week where I shared some incredible numbers from the great Montana pollster and political analyst Evan Wilson.

Below I have included a report by Greg Franks, who also comments on the numbers.

Does Montana predict a landslide victory for Trump?

by Greg Franks

Will Montana's June 4 primary be an indicator of the 2024 election? Most people across the country think of Montana as the show or Yellowstone National Park. Some may think of covered wagons and cowboys. But few think that Montana is an indicator of where the 2024 election might go.

Montana is the epicenter of national politics in 2024, as the Senate race is about ousting three-term Senator Jon Tester and potentially giving him control of the upper house.

The primaries have now clearly positioned Navy SEAL veteran and successful entrepreneur Tim Sheehy as Tester's challenger in the general election. Sheehy easily won a three-candidate primary with 74% of the vote. Jon Tester won his two-candidate primary with 97% of the vote.

Tens of millions of dollars have already been spent on this campaign. Montana voters are being inundated with advertising on television, online, and in print. You can't watch a second of YouTube without seeing a 10:1 ratio of pro-Tester or anti-Tim Sheehy ads to a 1:1 ratio of pro-Sheehy ads. But the flood of these ads is having little effect on Montana voters.

Tuesday's primary shows that this race isn't even close. Republicans had nearly twice as many votes as Democrats in the primary. According to the Montana Secretary of State's website, there were 187,695 total votes for Republicans. The Democratic vote totaled 106,551. Tim Sheehy received 138,202 votes and Jon Testers 103,341. Or 47% to 35%. With numbers like that, you have to ask how much longer liberal special interest money from other states will stay in this race. Politics is no different than any other investment. People want a return on their money. When will “they” reconsider the dollars spent in this race?

With the New York hush money ruling last week, the Trump campaign raised over $300 million in a matter of days. Polls show that support for Trump is growing not only in Republican states like Montana, but also in “very” Republican states like New York. There is even speculation that Trump might select New York Congressman Lee Zeldin, who narrowly lost his race for New York governor by five percentage points in the last legislative session, in a state that favors Democrats by 18 percentage points.

If Trump's dynamic holds true, we could see safe Democratic seats move into the at-risk categories, forcing the Democratic Senatorial Caucus and outside liberal special interests to pull their financial aid to Montana and invest it in securing seats that were otherwise safe for Democrats.

Only time will tell how this will all play out, but the ads in Montana are getting more and more desperate, clinging to outlandish, slanderous attacks on Tim Sheehy's character. Montanans aren't stupid and don't like being told what to do, and aren't easily swayed by outside groups. But if we see a drop in funding in this race, it's a sure sign that big things are coming for Trump and the GOP nationally.

SHOT Show – Montana to Las Vegas

We traveled from Montana to Las Vegas for the SHOT Show – the world's largest gun and outdoor equipment trade show. From the radio series to the exhibition hall.

Gallery Credit: Aaron Flint

Anna Harden

Learn More →

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *